Pakistan Takes a Step Backwards
A Fruitful Beginning?
Amidst the virulent power vacuum that seeks to suck the life-blood of a nation already wrought with corruption, nepotism, and ethnic strife, the results of the general election will only serve to worsen the already chaotic situation.
Since the inception of the Muslim state in 1947, Pakistan is the state equivalent of a drug addict constantly in and out of relapse. With successive failed democracies, the military has continually had to come in to save the nation from inevitable collapse, and, in the process, consolidated so much power that it has controlled every facet of public life, sometimes to the detriment of the nation itself.
After nine years of military rule, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is again flirting with democracy, except this time it is doing it with the same tried and tested failures that almost destroyed the nation. With the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML N) winning most of the seats, the new government could be a repulsive partnership between Asif “Mr. 10 per cent” Zardari and former exile Nawaz Sharif - both who should be in jail for corruption, extortion, and murder charges. The Pakistan Muslim League (Q) (PML Q) was predictably the big loser which probably suggests that Musharraf did not utilize rigging tactics that were as aggressive as those employed by all the other parties, perhaps to avoid escaping a third assassination attempt. In regards to the PPP, Fatima Bhutto, a journalist and the niece of the late Benazir Bhutto, said in an interview on Democracy Now:
...“There is incomplete voter lists that were being used at every polling station with, you know, five to six hundred names with the name, a birth date and a father’s name, but no national identity card number. Now, for that vote to be legally cast, the voter would have to bring in a birth certificate, which of course didn’t happen.
...You also have very open rigging, ballot stuffing in several areas known to be PPP areas in Larkana. I personally witnessed them and saw ID cards being used by their voters. Now, we know that they’re voters, because outside of the polling station in Pakistan, there was a camp set up by every political party contesting, and their voters have to come to them to get a slip of paper with their voter ID number. Four cards we confiscated in the Murad Wahan polling station in Larkana were all carrying PPP slips of paper with a voter number. These were ID’s that were duplicates, not originals, which are illegal. These are ID cards without photographs, which is also illegal. You know, there was one woman who I took an ID card from who was not much older than I am. She was in her early twenties, and she had a one-year-old baby, but a birth date of 1955 on her ID card.
There are also irregularities concerning the numbers. There has been an extremely low turnout across Pakistan, but notably thin because of fears of violence. And, you know, the government is claiming that 40 percent of the population voted, which is a gross exaggeration. PPP candidates are claiming wins of 80,000 and 70,000 votes. It just doesn’t add up.” (http://www.democracynow.org/2008/2/19/pakistan)
The mainstream media’s constant praise for the elections as some sort of second coming for the state is a damn joke.
The Other Players
Imran Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaaf (Movement for Justice Party) boycotted the elections under the guise of opposing the military, but in reality he knows that his small party has no chance against the two larger and long-standing rivals. He needs more time to establish a base, garner further support from the younger masses, and build a party brand that is essential in a climate where personality politics reigns supreme.
Irrelevant from a national perspective, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) swept urban Sindh through a combination of vote rigging and sympathy votes by Karachiites who’s feeling of isolation has not subsided since the introduction of the quota system and the carnage that was the 1990’s. No other party needs an overhaul and a different leader more than this one.
Perhaps the only good news of the elections was the convincing defeat of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), a coalition of religious parties primarily based in the Northwest Frontier Province who were elected only because of the emotions associated with the attack on Afghanistan after 9/11. The people of that region felt that their voices were not being heard and they acted on it.
And then you have Musharraf, an overly agreeable dictator turned tyrant who’s popularity plummeted after the Chief Justice fiasco, the State of Emergency, and the Lal Masjid debacle, and who continues to wage war on his own people in order to take pressure off NATO troops that are foolishly battling the Pashtun population in Southern Afghanistan.
What’s Next?
Pakistan’s pathetic display of democratic wannabe’s is a sign of inevitable despair and this experiment too will fail. Not mentioned is the fact that Pakistan continues to be a hotbed for proxies from Iran, Afghanistan, India, and remains a sphere of influence for the United States.
With no alternatives, what Pakistan needs is a benevolent, strong dictator that will act in the best interests of the state and its people. Someone with the industrial fortitude of a Joseph Stalin and the nationalistic fervour of a Mohammad Mossedeq would qualify although such a figure is probably unlikely. Unfortunately, even the military is now under American wraps with the recent introduction of General Ashfaq Kiyani as the new army chief.
The future looks bleak, but if there is any hope for the nation, it is that Pakistan has been through much worse and has survived.
The drug addict has not overdosed yet.
That’s pretty much the typical overseas-pakistani view.
What the Pakistani elections really show is the failure of democracy, not of Pakistan or Pakistanis.
Why did the PPP and PML-N sweep to power in the Musharraf-less vacuum of public opinion? It’s called serving your constituencies. The PPP has traditionally looked after Sindh, and during previous stints in power, actually has brought government attention and development to areas. This is even more the case with the PML-N. It’s fitting that the party is even named after Nawaz Sharif because this guy really looked after Punjab during his stint in power. Most all the recent development during the Musharraf years was started during Nawaz’s administration. Punjabis will support this guy forever.
Musharraf’s real constituency was, obviously enough, the military. Something that should not, under any circumstances, become political. He put military people into top civil service spots, just like how any other political party has done in the past.
Did they (the PPP, PML-N) abuse their power and neglect their responsibilities when presiding over the national government? No doubt. But they could always have afforded to, because that’s how democracy works everywhere, even back in the United States. Look after your constituencies. Give them some love, and that’s enough support to get the ball rolling on a national election campaign. Or in the case of a dictator, keep your hold on power.
Imran Khan will not have success until he has a geographical (or even ethnic, tribal), not idealogical, base. A constituency. Overseas Pakistanis are not that (though they can vote if they would come home for elections).
Rigging? Pakistan has essentially a ‘rigging’ form of Democracy. Perhaps its purest form. MQM areas will wind up voting MQM. PPP areas will wind up voting PPP, PML-N areas will wind up voting PML-N. The margins of victory might be off, but they wouldn’t have been possible if these areas hadn’t overwhelmingly been under the control of these parties (kind of like gangs or warlords in peacetime) to begin with. Control which is established by having your supporters in powerful positions of civil and private service in the area, thus bringing the poor masses and their votes under your influence. Dictators can rule the entire country in that manner.
Not unlike how Republican affiliation with the companies who make the voting machines or the governors of hotly contested states (Florida) caused such a ruckus within the Democratic camp (who quieted the voices because these are the same rules by which they also play).
Dictatorship is extraordinarily dangerous. Musharraf WAS that ‘benevolent, strong dictator that will act in the best interests of the state and its people.’ Funny how you mention Stalin. Musharraf has an equally conscience-less stance on slaughtering his own people while serving the Pakistan in his head, not the Pakistan on the ground. Kind of like Stalin with the USSR.
At the end of the day, though the Bhuttos and the Sharifs have their hands red with the blood of our people too, it’s not nearly as much blood as Musharraf’s. Who cares about the money, that’s a luxury those Pakistanis who aren’t at risk in Pakistan, can afford to worry about. Just as how the Soviet Union and Communism have many fans in areas that were never under their control, where people never witnessed their atrocities.
What Pakistan really needs is at least an army that serves and upholds the constitution, to match (for the time being) the recently ousted judiciary. That WAS a part of the oath that every member of the military takes after all. The reinstatement of the judiciary, a commitment by General Kiyani to uphold the constitution… meaning the judiciary’s interpretations of what conforms to it or not, that’s what Pakistan needs. To at least even have a HOPE of dealing with the insurgency in its tribal regions and the situation in Afghanistan. A flawed, but at least united Pakistan.
Most Pakistanis still got love for Zia ul-Haq. But he was just the opposite of Musharraf, illustrating how dictatorship in and of itself is too much of a wild card to depend on. It’s like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get. Musharraf’s first stint in power, like Zia’s, was endorsed by the Supreme Court reflecting the views of the populace at the time, thus the unsurprising lack of opposition. His second stint, from suspending the judiciary this fall, is what really messed things up. Perhaps people might begin to realize that the judiciary is important to Pakistan and Pakistanis and is probably more representative of the people than their ‘elected’ representatives in the Parliament.
The real danger of dictatorship, of turning the military into a political constituency, is a falling out between the people and the army. Between the nation and the greatest national institution. Baitullah Mehsud, the much hyped militant leader from Waziristan, said they had held back in their engagements with the army for that very reason. They don’t want to go to war with Pakistan. But they have increasingly come to realize, the army might not have much to do with Pakistan anymore. And for a country surrounded by enemies on all sides, the least of which is not India, that’s very, very, dangerous.
Btw, it’s curious you would see the fall of the religious parties (MMA) as a good thing, seeing as how they’re the only backup plan the country has for the insurgency. Most of the madrassah teachers that these kids fighting in the tribal region had (even those from Afghanistan studying in Pakistan) are members of or at least support the JUI-F. The issue is the students getting ahead of themselves due to the predominating environment and not listening to their teachers anymore. Not to mention out of all the elected parties (even the other parties in the MMA), they’re (the JUI-F) the only ones who don’t hold political grudges. The JUI-F (the only party from the MMA to bother running) has joined the ruling coalition, even the party (ANP) which defeated it. The JUI-F supports the candidate for Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly, for example, even though he’s the one who defeated Maulana Fazl-ur-Rahman on his home ticket. They could have decided to not bother joining the coalition and just do the Imran Khan/PTI thing in Parliament, take principled stances on everything, but by joining the PPP, PML-N, and ANP, they do lend a hint of religious credence to the government that might make the difference. It also gives the ruling coalition the voices they need to engage with the insurgents. And the JUI-F stands to gain absolutely nothing from doing this at all. Throughout their history, they have worked with and against various political opponents, to accomplish their open goal of establishing Shariah as the supreme law of the land (and the Constitution is on their side). The backlash this time around came from them getting too caught up in drama and their seeming political naivette (due only to the fact that they try to do what it takes to get things done, rather than entrench themselves politically). Not to mention the local populace actually sees them as becoming *LESS* religious. The few that did show up for the polls (turnout was very low in the NWFP) who weren’t already ANP regulars voted for PPP out of spite. The PPP hasn’t won there in decades, all the votes for them are kind of ridiculous taken in historical context. I wonder if that makes any Pakistanis living abroad uncomfortable, realizing that the Pakistanis over there actually had problems with Maulana Fazl-ur-Rahman because he would be out in public having his picture taken with women, that their views on religion and the subsequent political manifestation thereof during the previous election weren’t an emotional response to anything, and reflect a growing resurgence of Islamic culturalization (though people tend to prefer to call this ‘Talibanization’).
To illustrate that further. That 1973 constitution they so doggedly support? Was passed through by their archnemesis, one Zulfiqar Bhutto. Who suffered his only defeat in elections at the hands of then-head of the JUI-F, Mufti Mahmood (Maulana Fazl-ur-Rahman’s father… the reason for Maulan Fazl-ur-Rahman getting into politics, because they understood the only way to succeed in politics is to have a viable constituency come election time).
In the meantime, Nawaz Sharif is getting emo like a baby about trying to rewrite history regarding his last exit from Pakistani politics. The Jamaat-e-Islaami (a more ‘mainstream’ political party because it’s a party of ‘normal’ people whereas the JUI-F is mostly scholars/Ulema, thus it mustered out the vote the last time which got the MMA 11% of the seats) got emo with the other MMA parties for not listening to them and didn’t even run. The PPP has a ‘Bhutto’s Revenge’ vendetta. The ANP ran on a platform relishing revenge against the religious parties (whom they are allied with as part of the APDM). Musharraf is emo and bitter against the ex-Chief Justice. MQM is still bitter at the world, and Altaf Hussein probably needs to see a psychiatrist.
In a political scene dominated by irrationality and emotions, as Western-style democracies usually are, the JUI-F’s behaviour (and how they tried to steer the MMA, in and of itself something to wonder at, an alliance of religious parties who all view the other as kafirs) was refreshingly rational.
I guess we can agree on one thing, democracy is likely going to be a failed experiment in Pakistan yet again.
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